Zyrk Analysis

Zyrk Analysis

Zyrk’s Success Comes from Capitalizing on Opportunity

 

A key component of Zyrk’s success is the ability to capitalize on the markets bullish and bearish periods.

Charts below display the Market Index and the Long/Short Net Investment of a Zyrk Model. When the Net Investment is above 80% it defines a bullish bias (green-bold rectangles). Taking advantage of a low-risk environment Zyrk utilizes leverage x 2 during a bullish period,
represented by orange boxes.

The area between the bullish rectangles represent bearish periods where Net Investment tends to fall well below 50% and in some instances actually becomes net short. When the Model is bearish the Market tends to travel sideways
or downward.

 

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Sample Reports

April June

ZYRK MODEL: Investment Structure

 

Zyrck’s analysis is not fundamental not technical and not quantitative. Zyrk is statistical.

Zyrk’s Models are 100% proprietary, 100% automated and 0% personal.

Zyrk’s Models run as long/short portfolios. Returns are “chiseled in stone”.

Summary

  1. Zyrk produces consistent returns, enhancing a client’s confidence, resulting in increased performance.
  2. Zyrk’s Statistical Models are 100% developed in-house.
  3.  Whether in the States, UK or Europe, no one has ever stated they have seen a similar type of modeling system.

  00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 AVG.
US Model 40% 20% 11% 61% 24% 30% 25% 11% -38% 139% 13% -10% 16% 29% 26%
US Market -10% -13% 26% 9% 3% -3% 13% 3% -38% 23% 12% 0% 13% 29% 3%
UK Model 4% 34% 16% 28% 32% 1% -13% 156% 7% -19% 28% 13% 24%
UK Market -24% 13% 7% 16% 10% 3% -31% 21% 8% -5% 6% 14% 3%
EU Model -1% 51% 27% 26% 32% 14% 17% 69% 4% -19% 25% 35% 20%
EU Market -37% 25% 9% 23% 17% 0% -45% 28% 9% -11% 14% 17% 4%
Japan Model 14% 41% -13% -12% -12% 9% 10% -13% 32% 23% 8%
Japan Market 7% 40% 6% -11% -42% 18% -3% -17% 23% 56% 7%
F/E Model 147% 24% -30% 16% 8% 33%
F/E Market 56% 13% -16% 17% 1% 14%

Four Important But Unique Steps of the Model

 

Stocks within an industry correlate:

Zyrk will equally combine stocks within an industry to initially create an index, then analyze, and finally develop a model for the industry. This process results in less volatility and better defined trends. Industry Models are re-evaluated every three to five months using six years of daily data. Once a long/short signal is presented, the Model uses an algorithm to select two stocks in the industry to participate in the Stock Portfolio.

REGIONAL BANK INDEX Regional Bank Stocks: BBT, FITB, PNC, RF, STI, HBAN, SNV, ZION

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“Blocks” of good performers:

Numerous indicators are used to analyze the Industry Index. Indicators are based on some technical analysis, a small level of quantitative analysis, BUT the overwhelming majority of the mathematical function is statistical.

 Indicators analyze Index using: ex: Moving Average (smooth Industry Index), Period of Days (identify optimal rotations)

Under-performers via trade evaluations are deleted (purple and red)

Remaining optimal performers (green) represent ‘MULTIPLE BLOCKS’ correlating to industry’s trend.

 

chart3

 

“Best on Average” Indicators:

Previous step results in the selection of many, many indicators. Indicators are analyzed against one another using “Best on Average” percentiles. Fact: “Best on Average” analysis produces ‘real time’ performance that is similar to hypothetical performance. Thus, “consistent” real time results.

Indicators run through multiple tests and for every test each indicator will earn a “percentile” based upon how it ranks against fellow indicators, thus equal comparisons. Indicator’s percentiles are averaged to define a “Best on Average” percent. Indicators are then ranked and the top “Best on Average” indicators are selected.

 

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 Average Trend ‘Best on Average’ Indicator:

Once the top Best on Average Indicators are selected: which ones shall earn a spot in the industry’s model? A team of indicators run through this modeling process.

Example: Four indicators (25% each) are selected for Industry Model. Based upon each indicator’s definition and parameters a daily bullish/non-bullish percentile is issued. These daily percentiles for the four indicators are equally averaged and called an “Average Trend”. Chart below displays what an Average Trend would look like.

Ascending Average Trend above 50% is increasingly bullish. Descending Average Trend below 50% is increasingly nonbullish.

To identify a buy signal: Model calculates the level at which a sustainable bullish trend will continue.

To identify a sell signal: Model calculates the level at which a sustainable bullish trend has completed.

Example defines 55% as a buy signal and 25% as a sell signal for the Regional Banks Industry Index.

All test results are averaged to define a “Best on Average” percentile. The top “Best on Average” combination of indicators is selected to represent the industry’s model for the following months.

 chart5

 

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